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The WAR Room: Colon and Aviles riding sinkers to great results (6.1.14)

13 Jun

The WAR Room is back again, bringing you the 2014 advanced stats for every Cleveland minor leaguer. After looking at the hitters last week, today we focus on the pitchers. It is still early enough that there is some noise in the numbers, but at this point in the season, we are starting to see some interesting trends emerge.

Of course, it is always important to keep context in mind, just like with scouting. A pitcher who is old for his level using that experience to succeed against young, inexperienced hitters must be taken with a grain of salt; the same goes when looking at these WAR totals.

But it is a useful tool to put each player’s performance into context and look at where they sit in regard to the rest of the league.

For reference on how I computed WAR, a reminder on the problems inherent in the stats, and everything else you need to know, click here. For a refresher on WAR and what it is, click here.

As a reminder, a 0.0 WAR per 162 games is replacement level — otherwise known as the kind of performance an average player from the level below could offer — a 2.0 WAR per 162 games is average, and a 5.0 WAR per 162 games is All-Star level.

Also note that pitchers have FIP-based WAR — which is based on peripherals like strikeouts, walks, home runs, etc. — and RA-based WAR — which is based on runs allowed.

One more thing, all “+” stats are averaged at 100. Anything over 100, like 110, is higher and means that player is 10 percent better than the league average. Anything under 100, like 90, is lower and means that player is 10 percent worse than the league average. In the case of any “-” stats — when lower is better, like with ERA — a 90 ERA- means that player is 10 percent better than the league average.

Today we look at the pitchers throughout the system. Next week we will do the hitters. For the full stats, go ahead and click here. Stats are updated through Friday, May 30.

So how much credit do we give right-hander Robbie Aviles for exceeding his peripherals? Like Colon, Aviles has the profile to get more credit than his still very good FIP gives him, but he probably will not keep up his 1.45 ERA (37 ERA-) all season (in fact, his rougher Saturday start is not counted here. But Aviles is still in the midst of a great season, as either his 0.9 FIP-based WAR or 2.5 RA-based WAR in 49.2 innings would indicate. Aviles never walks anyone, and now that his strikeout rate is not also extremely low (16.2 percent, 80 K%+), he looks like he is back to being a real prospect going forward. Read More…

From Indians Baseball Insider, June 1, 2014

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Posted by on June 13, 2014 in ZQ. June 2014

 

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