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THE WAR ROOM: POSITIONAL BREAKDOWN, PART 5 (3.23.15)

30 Mar

The WAR Room is back again, bringing you the 2014 advanced stats for every Cleveland minor leaguer. Next up for The WAR Room is breaking down the organization’s minor leaguers by position based on 2014 performance. Join Jim Piascik as he breaks down Cleveland’s third basemen and left fielders, two groups that are not as deep as the organization’s middle infielders, but are both still strong.

Over the past months, IBI rolled out the year-end rankings for every minor league affiliate in the Cleveland system and a Top 100 countdown based on age-adjusted WAR. Next up, we will be breaking down the organization position-by-position using the same age-adjusted WAR.

These rankings are adjusted for how old the prospect was compared to his minor league level. For example, older prospects like Anthony Gallas, who did well at 26 years old in High-A and Double-A, are downgraded, while younger prospects likeFrancisco Lindor, who did well at 20 years old Double-A and Triple-A, are upgraded (as if Lindor needed anymore help).

Naturally, if Gallas — or anyone else in his situation — continues to hit like he did in 2014, it will not matter that he was old for his level, and vice versa for young prospects. But overall, accounting for a player’s age relative to level is critically important for judging a prospect’s performance.

Before moving on to the position-by-position breakdown, first some reminders on what these numbers are, their uses, and their limitations:

It is always important to keep context in mind, just like with scouting. A pitcher who is old for his level using that experience to succeed against young, inexperienced hitters must be taken with a grain of salt; the same goes when looking at these WAR totals.

But it is a useful tool to put each player’s performance into context and look at where they sit in regard to the rest of the league.

For reference on how I computed WAR, a reminder on the problems inherent in the stats, and everything else you need to know, click here. For a refresher on WAR and what it is, click here.

As a reminder, a 0.0 WAR per 162 games is replacement level — otherwise known as the kind of performance an average player from the level below could offer — a 2.0 WAR per 162 games is average, and a 5.0 WAR per 162 games is All-Star level.

Also, the lack of good defensive metrics for the minor leagues means we have to adjust for a range of defensive abilities. To account for this, I will give you each player’s WAR with a qualifier: either poor-defense WAR for a poor defender (-10 runs below-average per 162 games), average-defense WAR for an average defender (0 runs per 162 games), or great-defense WAR for a great defender (10 runs above-average per 162 games).

Additionally, note that pitchers have FIP-based WAR — which is based on peripherals like strikeouts, walks, home runs, etc. — and RA-based WAR — which is based on runs allowed.

One more thing, all “+” stats are averaged at 100. Anything over 100, like 110, is higher and means that player is 10 percent better than the league average. Anything under 100, like 90, is lower and means that player is 10 percent worse than the league average. In the case of any “-” stats — when lower is better, like with ERA — a 90 ERA- means that player is 10 percent better than the league average.

The 2014 year-end season in review for every affiliate is listed below:

And here are the links to the Top 100 countdown:

And here are the links to the previous positional breakdowns:

Now, on to part five of the position-by-position breakdown. Each player’s spot in the overall Top 100 rankings is in parenthesis:

Third Basemen

  1. Giovanny Urshela (1)
  2. Paul Hendrix (13)
  3. Yandy Diaz (26)
  4. Grant Fink (89)
  5. Nathan Winfrey (90)
  6. Yonathan Mendoza (96)
  7. Ordomar Valdez (109)
  8. Grofi Cruz (187)
  9. Justin Toole (193)
  10. Adam Abraham (195)
  11. Drake Roberts (198)

Top performers: Many of the names at the top of The WAR Room’s prospect countdown coincide with Tony’s IBI Top Prospect Countdown, though some may be higher or lower by a number of spots. But while the stats or scouting may favor a prospect one way or another, few disparities are as stark as Paul Hendrix. Hendrix finished in these rankings as a solidly above-average player close to cracking the Top 10 while not placing in Tony’s Top 50. That does not really come as a surprise given Hendrix is entering his age-23 season without ever making an appearance above Low-A, but despite a high strikeout rate and what appears to be a utility infielder ceiling, Hendrix’s performance in 2014 at least keeps him interesting entering 2015. Read More…

From Indians Baseball Insider, March 23, 2015

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Posted by on March 30, 2015 in ZZ. March 2015

 

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