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ASSESSING CLEVELAND’S SLIDING PLAYOFF ODDS (5.19.15)

11 Jun

By this point, I think most people following baseball realize it is important to avoid overreacting to small samples. But while keeping that in mind, it is also important to realize when a team digs a hole that is too deep to get out of.

Cleveland’s 2015 season is starting to trend that way, though many things can still change over the final 125 games of the season.

Per Fangraphs’ projections, Cleveland is currently ranked as the third-best American League team the rest of the way, only falling behind Seattle and Boston. But while Cleveland is expected to win the most games of any American League Central team for the rest of 2015, the fact that the team is already nearly 10 whole games out of first place really complicates things.

Since Cleveland is nine games below .500, Fangraphs’ projection of a .534 winning percentage the rest of the way only gets them to a mean win total of 80.8, essentially meaning that despite being one of the best teams in the American League, the franchise will end the season with a mediocre, middle of the road record because of all these early losses, per the projections. Read More…

From Indians Baseball Insider, May 19, 2015

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Posted by on June 11, 2015 in ZZB. May 2015

 

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