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THE WAR ROOM: 2015 SEASON PREVIEW (4.7.15)

11 Jun

The WAR Room is back again, bringing you the advanced stats for every Cleveland minor leaguer. Join Jim Piascik as he asks 10 important questions about Cleveland’s minor leaguers heading into 2015, including those surrounding Francisco Lindor, how the ages of prospects effect how we need to think of their performances at their respective levels, and much more.

Over the past months, IBI rolled out the year-end rankings for every minor league affiliate in the Cleveland system and a Top 100 countdown based on age-adjusted WAR, and a position-by-position organizational breakdown using the same age-adjusted WAR.

Now, as we await the first games of 2015, I ask 10 important statistical questions about Cleveland’s minor leaguers entering the season.

For reference on how I computed WAR, a reminder on the problems inherent in the stats, and everything else you need to know, click here. For a refresher on WAR and what it is, click here.

As a reminder, a 0.0 WAR per 162 games is replacement level — otherwise known as the kind of performance an average player from the level below could offer — a 2.0 WAR per 162 games is average, and a 5.0 WAR per 162 games is All-Star level.

Also, the lack of good defensive metrics for the minor leagues means we have to adjust for a range of defensive abilities. To account for this, I will give you each player’s WAR with a qualifier: either poor-defense WAR for a poor defender (-10 runs below-average per 162 games), average-defense WAR for an average defender (0 runs per 162 games), or great-defense WAR for a great defender (10 runs above-average per 162 games).

Additionally, note that pitchers have FIP-based WAR — which is based on peripherals like strikeouts, walks, home runs, etc. — and RA-based WAR — which is based on runs allowed.

One more thing, all “+” stats are averaged at 100. Anything over 100, like 110, is higher and means that player is 10 percent better than the league average. Anything under 100, like 90, is lower and means that player is 10 percent worse than the league average. In the case of any “-” stats — when lower is better, like with ERA — a 90 ERA- means that player is 10 percent better than the league average.

The 2014 year-end season in review for every affiliate is listed below:

And here are the links to the Top 100 countdown:

And here are the links to the positional breakdowns:

As we wait for the minor league games to begin and give us new data to interpret, here are 10 important storylines that will frame future editions of The WAR Room in 2015:

#1 How does Francisco Lindor fare in his second chance at Triple-A?

Though Lindor is still young — entering his age-21 season — now that he is in Triple-A, the performance is really starting to matter. His minor league WAR was not all that bad during his turn in Columbus, however, the underlying issues with his peripherals were a real problem. The organization is not going to promote Lindor to the majors on potential; unless he is putting up big numbers in the WAR (and other statistical) departments, he will still be waiting for that elusive major league call. Read More…

From Indians Baseball Insider, April 7, 2015

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Posted by on June 11, 2015 in ZZA. April 2015

 

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